Developments in the U.S. Republican Party Since the 2020 Election

Diao Daming

On November 8, 2023, the Republican Party of the United States hosted its third televised debate for the presidential nomination primary in Miami, Florida. Former President Donald Trump, though absent once again, still maintains a lead in all polls and is even considered highly likely to win the Republican nomination for the third time, to fight Biden again and compete for the White House throne. In fact, over the three years since Trump left office, and Biden came to power, the Republican Party did not get rid of the influence of the political philosophy represented by Trump, and the partys political ecology and policy agenda inevitably by Trumps personal influence, presenting a subtle and complex political phenomenon as Trump has never left.

The Heated “Right to Life” Issue Restricts the Republican Partys Electoral Space

The presidential election of November 3, 2020, which sealed Trumps defeat and the end of his administration, did not prevent the so-called “Trump legacy” within the framework of the U.S. system from continuing to explode with unpredictable force. A week before the election vote, conservative-leaning Amy Coney Barrett was sworn in to the U.S. Supreme Court, the third Federal Supreme Court justice nominated and seated in Trumps four years in office. These nominations during Trumps presidency have rapidly contributed to the conservatization of the Federal Supreme Court and the judicial system as a whole. Influenced by the institutional arrangement of having judges in office for a long period of time, the conservatization of the U.S. judicial system will shape U.S. politics and society for a long time to come.

In recent years, the increasingly conservative Federal Supreme Court has drastically revised many of the civil rights achievements forged by the civil rights movement of the 1950s and 1960s. On June 24, 2022, the Federal Supreme Courts 5:4 decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Womens Health Organization reversed the 1973 decision in Roe v. Wade, which was a de facto overturning of the 1973 decision and denying the “right to choose” principle it had established for the legalization of abortion throughout the U.S., and returning the decision on legalization directly to the states. This “right to life” decision, which emphasizes states rights and highlights conservative religious values, fully meets the long-standing political demands of Republicans, especially certain conservative forces.

However, the conservative decision by the Federal Supreme Court soon proved to be significantly beyond the reach of current American society, and for the Republican camp as a whole, it was more of a political agenda that had to be endorsed, but not necessarily benefited from. In the 2022 midterm elections, five months after the decision was announced, the Republican Party did not experience a “red wave” or a “red tsunami” that had been predicted, but at best a “red ripple” that narrowly returned it to the majority in the House of Representatives. One of the key reasons for this is that the denial of the “right to choose” has generated a great deal of concern among American voters, partially curbing the publics dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party due to the economic downturn. In other words, the “right to life” judgment at that time not only distracted voters from the economy and inflation issues, but also inspired voters anxiety and fear about their own civil rights being deprived. As a result, the Republican Party failed to speculate on economic issues and gain a substantial advantage. Thus, as a major breakthrough in the Republican Partys so-called “culture war” agenda, the “right to life” ruling has reinforced the Democratic Partys agenda centered on identity politics.

In the face of the coming 2024 election, when economic issues are likely to become the main point of attack for the Republicans against the Democrats, the Democratic camp is attempting to continue to elevate the “right to life” and “right to choose” battles to the forefront of the election agenda in an effort to mobilizing women, youth, and minorities in an attempt to respond to and mobilize the 64% of the population that expressed disappointment with the “right to life” decision, especially moderate central voters. In order to avoid repeating the same mistake, the Republican camp began to try to make some so-called softening and even technical blurring. This seemingly pragmatic blurring of adjustments in fact exposes the limitations of the “culture war” by the Republicans with “white supremacy” as the background color in the trend of historical development.

Deeper Reasons for the Speakers “Hard to Produce” Crisis

With the opening of the 118th Congress in January 2023, the Republican Party returned to the majority in the House of Representatives after four years in minority, but dragged down by the “right to life” ruling and other factors, the Republican Partys majority advantage has been narrowed to less than 10 seats. Such a narrow advantage has directly amplified the differences between the various factions within the Republican Party, especially the ultra-conservatives and the mainstream establishment, which have gained more power during the Trump administration. Under the fragmented party ecology, the U.S. House of Representatives in 2023 has staged two waves of Speaker “hard to produce” crisis.

On January 3rd to 7th, 2023, Kevin McCarthy, the longtime Republican leader of the House of Representatives, finally won the position of Speaker of the House of Representatives after 15 rounds of voting. The price was compromise with the ultra-conservative wing of the party, including House Freedom Caucus. The instability caused by the political compromises was obvious, not only increasing public concern about whether the 118th Congress would be able to resolve major issues such as the debt ceiling, but also ultimately leading to McCarthy becoming the first Speaker of the House of Representatives to be ousted in U.S. history after less than nine months in office. The narrow gap between the Democratic and Republican parties in the chamber in the context of polarization has further strengthened the standoff between the two sides and prompted the extremist factions within each party to become more brazen. If the political impact of Trumps rise and his election is more manifested in the party ecology, the removal of the Speaker means that this impact has spread to the level of the American political system and government.

The 22-day drama over the election of a new Speaker crystallized Trumps influence on the Republican Party and exposed the fragmented character of political parties and the limited nature of Republican polarization within the American political framework. It is only on November 24, 2023, i.e., under the crisis of a three-week absence of the Speaker and the looming expiration of the temporary appropriations, when more and more people express their dissatisfaction with the Republican camp and blame the Republican Party for the possible crisis of the government shutdown, that the Republican Party accelerates its consolidation and nominates compromise candidates who are perceived by all camps as possible of being influenced in the future because of their limited credentials.

It follows that Trump and the forces he represents can indeed shape the Republican Party in the long term, and in some exceptional cases may also be able to separate from or even impede the mainstream establishments agenda within the Republican Party, although this disruptive influence has still not dominated the Republican Party or broken through the established institutional framework. However, the two waves of Speaker “hard to produce” crisis throughout 2023 are enough for the American public to see a divided and extreme Republican Party, and in a sense, this provoked peoples further reflection on the Republican Party about Trump and the power he represents.

The Republican Party is Still Being “Trumpified”

Since facing his first criminal indictment in late March/early April 2023, Trump has surged in the polls in the Republican primaries, and remains a clear favourite. In the coming period, unless only one challenger remains due to the rapid withdrawal of the announced candidates in the Republican primaries, Trump will maintain his absolute advantage and lock up the Republican presidential nomination early on March 5, 2024, the first “Super Tuesday” of the simultaneous primaries in 11 states.

Whether or not Trump will be elected in 2024, according to the U.S. Constitution, this election is Trumps last election, after 2028, the Republican Party will, in a certain sense, bid farewell to Trump. However, the ideas that Trump represents, and the changing trends in political power and voter structure within the Republican Party as a result of those ideas, will continue. As a new generation of political figures, such as Ron DeSantis, step into the political arena, a process of “Trumpification” of the Republican Party that downplays Trumps personal colors will continue. From this perspective, the outcome of the 2024 election will determine the growing speed of this trend in the Republican Party: if Trump loses again in 2024, the trend will accelerate; if Trump wins in 2024, the trend will emerge correspondingly later.

The ongoing “Trumpification” of the Republican Party will not only shape its values and policy positions, but also manifest itself more clearly in the generational renewal of the partys elite. For example, in the House of Representatives of the 118th Congress, there are 33 post-80s Republicans, more than post-80s Democrats (31). The Republican Party, which used to give people the impression that members of Congress were relatively old, is accelerating the recruitment of more young people, which worth attentions. If the so-called “Obama drag” led the Democratic Party elite into a generation of “stagnation”, “Trump speed” directly stimulate the accelerated renewal of the Republican Party elite. Its internal logic is that Trump, as one of the anti-establishment force came into the Republican politics, pushed a series of extreme ideas and formed a strong momentum. This trend is not easy for the traditional Republicans who have been in office for a certain period of time and are older to quickly adjust to follow, but on the contrary, the Republicans who have just entered the political arena are more prone to accept Trumps political formula, including many young generations of Republicans. While following Trump, this new generation of Republicans also clarify and strengthen their own anti-establishment political? concept identity, so as to realize the goal of consolidating their foothold the Party or even in Washington, D.C..

The New Political Cycle Has Not Yet Arrived

The excesses and extremes of political issues, as well as the disorganization and tearing of political operations, reflect the fact that American politics has entered the transition phase of a political cycle. Historically, any cycle transition is characterized by a series of drastic changes in the structure of voter groups, the exchange of regional spheres of influence of political parties, and the adjustment of the composition of party elites. The conversion process of this conservative-leaning political cycle is more often underlined by the intense and extreme political ecological changes within the Republican Party.

Trumps own anti-establishment attributes and his election under the distortions of the Electoral College system have led many to refuse to accept 2016 as the starting point of a new political cycle. And the combination of a strong consensus to end Trumps presidency and the factor of a century-rare pandemic has given the 2020 election great ambiguity and even controversy in its political implications. Due to various factors, the new political cycle has missed two key test points, and it is difficult to give a clear signal for the 2024 election. Biden against Trump again, which seems the most likely scenario, will inevitably evoke memories of the previous two elections, coupled with a series of possible new circumstances, will reduce the credibility of 2024 as the observation or establishment of a new political cycle.

If three consecutive elections do not indicate the arrival of a new political cycle due to varying degrees of specificity, the 12-year period they cover will be even more ambiguous in terms of its positioning in the process of political development in the U.S. The 12-year period from 2016-2028 is a reluctant farewell to an old political cycle and an unhurried hello to a new and recent political cycle. Thus, this somewhat long transition period is not a political cycle in the usual sense, but a so-called political “sub-cycle” in which both parties need to quickly integrate their internal forces. In this “sub-cycle”, the pressure and difficulties the Republican Party faces in the course of its internal adjustment are more obvious, and the Partys integration and adjustment on policy agenda, government operation and political ecology etc., are precisely its most critical motivation during this “sub-cycle”.

Regardless of the results of the 2024 election, the two parties and even the entire U.S. party politics may enter a brand new stage after 2028, while the development of the Republican Party and the internal ecology before 2028 will also greatly influence the direction of the new cycle of U.S. politics in the future.

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Diao Daming is Professor of School of International Relations at the Renmin University of China