History Foretells the Future

By Jiang Peng

Living through the Southern and Northern Dynasties(420-589) to the Sui Dynasty (581-618) in ancient China,Yan Zhitui (531-597),a scholar-official who grew up in the Southern Liang Dynasty (502-557),had a life full of turbulence and unpredictability.He witnessed the most prosperous heyday of the state in his youth.Yet,after the outbreak of the Hou Jing Rebellion (548-552),the once mighty Liang State soon collapsed,and the Western Wei Regime which occupied northwestern China (535-556) took advantage of the opportunity and came to loot Liang.Yan was then captured.

Ironically,it was just two years later that the Western Wei also fell apart and gave way to the Northern Zhou State (557-581).In the chaos of the political coup,Yan braved formidable difficulties to flee from the Northern Zhou to the Northern Qi State,whose land covered the Northern Plains in China,where he spent his stable and peaceful life for twenty years or so;but that was not the end.In 577,Yan found himself a captive again when the Qi Dynasty was conquered by the Northern Zhou.History always repeats itself in a similar form.After only four years of ruling in the unified North,the Northern Zhou was toppled by Yang Jian,also known as Wendi Sui (literally meaning “civil emperor,” a kind of symbolic name often posthumously conferred on emperors),who became the founding emperor and began the reign of the Sui Dynasty (581-618).

南北朝至隋朝期間，出生于南方梁朝的士大夫顏之推，人生經歷豐富，年輕時，他目睹了南朝最為繁華的時光。隨著“侯景之亂”爆發，南朝繁華付諸東流，之后不久，梁朝也滅亡了。征服者是來自北方關中地區的西魏政權，顏之推被西魏軍隊俘獲。

有趣的是，短短兩年后，西魏也滅亡了，被一個叫北周的政權取代。顏之推趁機逃離，歷經千辛萬苦，來到華北平原的北齊國。顏之推在北齊大概過了二十年的安穩日子。隨后，北齊被北周滅，他再度做了亡國奴。歷史總是驚人的相似，戲劇性的事件再次上演，滅北齊統一北方才四年功夫，北周政權也被隋文帝楊堅降服，隋朝統治歷程開啟。

顏之推一生經歷過梁朝、西魏、北齊、北周、隋五個朝代，并目睹其中四個政權的滅亡。這樣復雜的人生經歷，讓顏之推看到了很多常人看不到的東西，于是他將亂世中的感悟寫成一本名叫《顏氏家訓》的書，希望這些經驗教訓能幫助他的子子孫孫洞明世事，健康成長。

《顏氏家訓》里有這樣一個故事。顏之推生活在北齊的時候，有一位士大夫對他說，他有一個兒子，十七歲，學習不錯，想讓他學習鮮卑語，彈彈琵琶。顏之推知道，士大夫之所以這么要求兒子，是因為當時北齊最高的統治階層是鮮卑貴族，說的是鮮卑語，而且北齊皇帝很喜歡琵琶。說鮮卑語、彈琵琶，就是為接近、服侍達官貴人，投其所好。

聽完之后，顏之推沒說什么。之后，他把這件事記錄在《顏氏家訓》里，感嘆道，這人怎么會這樣教育孩子呢？他告誡自己的后代，千萬不要這樣做?？糠倘瞬鑫?，首先獨立人格沒有了，更何況把這些達官貴人伺候得再好也未必就能當大官呢。

那么，這位士大夫和顏之推的分歧在哪里？

這位士大夫認為，討好眼前的貴人，自己就有機會飛黃騰達——這是很多人都容易有的想法。顏之推卻質疑說：你眼前的貴人，將來會一直是貴人嗎？你為了討好他，甚至連獨立的人格都不要了，萬一有一天他被打翻，成為階下囚，先不說你會不會受連累，你曾經的付出在那個時候還有什么價值嗎？還能得到什么回報呢？

As a man that lived through five dynasties,Yan saw the downfall of four of them.

His bitter suffering as a refugee and unconventional encounters taught him a lot.Therefore,he wrote a book named “Family Instructions for the Yan Clan,”recording his reflection upon the troubled times in the hope that generations of his descendants would know the world better and grow up well in light of the book.

One of the stories from the book goes as follows:When Yan lived in the Northern Qi,a peer scholarofficial told him that he wanted his talented son of 17 to learn the Xianbei ethnic language and the pipa,a four-stringed Chinese lute.Yan knew well what his purpose was.As the ruling class then,the Xianbei aristocrats did not speak Mandarin Chinese,and as the emperor himself was a pipa enthusiast,by doing so,the man could please the Xianbei Nobles who,in return,might help his son gain more power.

Yan didn’t say a word during the conversation.However,he wrote it down in the book later,sighing:how could the man teach his sons like this? Yan then warned his descendants not to do as this man did.He suggested that if you were keen on rising high in the political hierarchy by currying favor with people of influence,you would lose your personality of independence,and you wouldn’t necessarily get promoted through servile flattering to superiors.

Then,on which points did the man and Yan differ?

Practically,the man believed that one could attain prominence by courting,even flattering,dignitaries—a popular belief among many people.Yan,however,raised an opposition:Could the nobleman you serve stay in power forever and always come to your favor? By pleasing him,you risk the loss of your personality and independence.If someday they lost power and ended up as prisoners,what would you think you could earn from your efforts?Worse still,you might even get pulled into the political turmoil.

Ideologically,the scholarofficial’s education approach stems from the doctrine of utilitarianism,which means gaining immediate benefits regardless of possible costs,sacrifices,and complications in the future.Although the problem of that approach seemed to be due to the lack of foresight,it actually stems from a short view of history.If we draw a timeline and consider the present as a starting point,then,on the left side is what has already happened,i.e.the history;and on the right is what has not yet happened,i.e.the future.History and the future are symmetrical.The more you know about history,the acuter your judgment for the future will be.

Yan was a wise man with excellent judgments and rich life experiences.Before fleeing to the Northern Qi,he had already witnessed the rise and fall of two dynasties:Liang and the Western Wei.He found it was not uncommon to find examples in which a person who enjoyed an unshakable social status being reduced to the misery as prisoner.He recollected the cases,and summarized his reflections into some useful empirical knowledge and insights,in order to guide his sons and grandsons to make predictions and judgments that would lead to a good life.This makes Yan’s wisdom extraordinary.According to his analytical logic,since the status and power of your superior are not guaranteed,how can you assure that the superior wouldn’t become a man behind bars tomorrow?

If we happen to live in troubled times,we surely cannot resign ourselves from the national tragedies rendered by the troubles in history.But at any time,we always need self-reliance and to stay true to ourselves.Even if we are destined to a life in exile,we should hold firm to our own life in our hands,and should never rely on others who might drag down our life.

Yan’s wisdom came from his reflections on history.So,this is why we say history can foretell the future—and why we can always learn from history.

(FromFamily Business,April 2019.Translation:Wang Wen)

這位士大夫的教育理念，其實就是功利主義思想：只顧眼前，忽視了未來的復雜性。這種思想，看上去是對未來缺乏前瞻，究其根本，實則是對歷史缺乏洞察。如果把時間畫成一條線，以當前所處的時間為原點，在它左邊，是已經發生的事，是歷史；在它右邊，是尚未發生的事，是未來。歷史和未來是對稱的。你對歷史的理解有多深，對未來的判斷就有多敏銳。

顏之推見多識廣，閱歷豐富。來到北齊之前，他目睹了梁朝和西魏兩個王朝的滅亡，昨日風光無限，今日卻淪為階下囚的凄慘人生，并不少見。將這些豐富人生經歷通過反思升華成生活經驗，再把眼光投向未來判斷世事變化，顏之推自然比常人更為睿智。既然富貴不可常保，如何能知今日所服侍的貴人不是明日的階下囚呢？

人若不幸遭遇亂世，固然很難抗拒滾滾歷史大潮席卷之下的命運；但無論何時，人都可以選擇自立自強，做真正的自己。即便無法改變流離的命運，也要把人生掌握在自己手里，千萬不要輕易把未來交托給他人。

顏之推的睿智，來自對歷史的總結，所以說歷史中隱藏著未來。

（摘自《家族企業》2019年第4 期）